Editor’s Word: Chief Earnings Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld’s Annual Forecast Concern is the No. 1 factor his Oxford Earnings Letter readers look ahead to each 12 months.
And this 12 months, he’s upping the ante… Instead of issuing just one big prediction, he’s issuing 10!
On Tuesday morning, Marc will unveil his 2024 forecasts for rates of interest, the markets, the financial system, geopolitics and even the presidential election.
– Rachel Gearhart, Writer
The start of a brand new 12 months is all the time enjoyable. We replicate on our accomplishments of the previous 12 months and create objectives for the brand new one.
My 12 months began out nice after I ran 5 miles on New 12 months’s Day – my longest run in additional than a 12 months.
The next day, I had a doughnut for breakfast, so I’m again to even.
I anticipate 2024 to be fascinating for the markets, the financial system and our nation. It’s a pivotal 12 months in so some ways.
Clearly, the election in November could have ramifications for years.
Within the nearer time period, everyone seems to be questioning whether or not the Fed will or gained’t change rates of interest. And if it does, which course will it’s?
The overwhelming consensus is that charge cuts are coming in 2024. I’m not so satisfied. We’re not seeing a lot proof of a slowdown. That doesn’t imply it might probably’t occur, however the Fed just isn’t more likely to get out forward of a recession and scale back charges to keep off a slowing financial system. It would doubtless wait till it’s painfully apparent that the financial system is in a downturn.
That doesn’t occur in a single day (apart from throughout a worldwide pandemic). And even when that does happen once more, it’s laborious to think about our authorities and lots of others instantly halting their economies as they did in 2020.
Final January, within the Annual Forecast Concern of my publication, The Oxford Earnings Letter, I stated a brand new bull market would start in 2023. It certain did. The S&P 500 gained 24% final 12 months.
In 2022, I stated worth shares would outperform development shares. That 12 months was a troublesome one for shares, with the S&P 500 falling 19%. Progress shares dropped 30%, whereas worth shares slipped 7%. It was definitely not an excellent 12 months for worth shares, however their 7% drop was manner higher than the 30% haircut in development shares and the 19% discount within the broad market.
With oil at round $75 per barrel, I noticed that the oil market was undersupplied and projected that crude would soar to $140. It peaked above $130.
In January 2021, I wrote, “I anticipate inflation to take off in 2021.”
Boy, did it ever. Inflation rose from 1.4% in January of that 12 months to 7% in December… and ultimately reached a excessive of 9.1% in June 2022.
Consider, this was not at a time when anybody was actually anticipating inflation. We had been within the throes of the pandemic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had simply referred to as the U.S. financial system “terribly unsure.”
So I’ve a historical past of not solely making daring predictions but in addition being proper about them – particularly when the gang is leaning closely within the different course.
This 12 months, in The Oxford Earnings Letter‘s Forecast Concern, which comes out on Tuesday, I clarify why I’m as soon as once more bullish on vitality. The truth is, I make 10 predictions, together with forecasts on rates of interest (this one will shock you), the markets, the financial system and geopolitics, in addition to a stunning projection in regards to the U.S. presidential election.
I absolutely anticipate 2024 to be a wild 12 months in a wide range of classes. Investing efficiently would require you to make use of some foresight, be nimble and be prepared to take motion. These of you who do these three issues ought to have a unbelievable alternative to make severe cash this 12 months.